Durable Goods Orders by Country

What is Durable Goods Orders?

Durable goods orders measure new orders placed with US manufacturers for products expected to last three years or more — vehicles, machinery, computers, aircraft. They are a monthly leading indicator for capex and industrial production.

Why it matters for FX

Core capital goods orders (ex defence and aircraft) are the cleanest read on business investment intentions and feed directly into GDP nowcasts. Sustained weakness signals deteriorating capex and pulls forward Fed easing expectations.

How to read this page

Strip out volatile transportation orders (Boeing alone can swing the headline by tens of percent month-over-month) and watch core capital goods orders. Year-over-year change is the trend signal.

What to watch for

• Core capital goods ex aircraft as the capex proxy
• Aircraft orders distorting the headline
• Auto-sector orders during inventory cycles
• Year-over-year deceleration as a recession signal
• Cross-check with ISM Manufacturing new orders