The 2-year government bond yield for United States reflects the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's policy rate over the next two years. It is the most policy-sensitive point on the yield curve.
Why FX traders watch it
The 2-year yield is the primary market tool for pricing central bank expectations. Rising 2-year yields indicate markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates high or hike, supporting the usd via interest rate differentials.
How to interpret the data
Yields moving higher are usd-positive through the interest rate differential channel. The 2y-10y spread is a widely tracked recession indicator: an inverted curve (2y > 10y) historically precedes economic slowdowns.
Historical Výnos 2-ročného štátneho dlhopisu (USD)