Core Inflation MoM (HICP ex Food & Energy)
July 01, 2026 at 16:00
0.97 %MoM
Market participants are shifting their focus toward the Eurozone's underlying price dynamics as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) excluding food and energy is scheduled for release. This monthly measure serves as a critical barometer for the European Central Bank (ECB), as it strips away the inherent volatility of commodity prices to reveal the persistent inflationary pressures embedded within the broader economy. For macro analysts and FX traders, the Core Inflation MoM reading is often more influential than the headline figure, providing a clearer signal of the long-term inflation trajectory.
With the most recent reading coming in at 0.97 %MoM, the market is bracing for a potential acceleration or stabilization in prices. Given the rising trend observed across recent data points, the announcement on July 1, 2026, at 16:00 CET is expected to trigger significant volatility across EUR-denominated pairs. The release will provide essential clues regarding whether the ECB will maintain a restrictive monetary stance or if there is room for a dovish pivot in the coming quarters.
Recent Readings
What Core Inflation MoM (HICP ex Food & Energy) Measures
The Core Inflation MoM (HICP ex Food & Energy) is a sophisticated price index calculated by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Unlike the headline inflation rate, which tracks the total cost of a basket of consumer goods and services, the core measure specifically excludes food and energy. These two categories are omitted because they are subject to extreme price swings driven by geopolitical events, weather patterns, and global commodity market speculation, which can often mask the true state of domestic price pressures.
By focusing on the month-over-month (MoM) percentage change, analysts can identify immediate shifts in price momentum before they are fully reflected in annual figures. Traders follow this indicator closely because it captures "sticky" inflation—prices in services and manufactured goods that are more closely tied to wage growth and corporate pricing power. When core inflation rises, it suggests that price increases have become embedded in the economy, making it harder for a central bank to bring inflation back down to its target without significant economic contraction.
Recent Trend Analysis
An examination of the recent data reveals a period of significant volatility followed by a clear upward trajectory. In early 2025, the Eurozone experienced a peak in core inflation, with the reading reaching 1.02 %MoM in April 2025. This was followed by a sharp correction in May 2025, where the indicator dipped to -0.02 %MoM, suggesting a momentary cooling of price pressures. However, this stabilization was short-lived, as the data entered a phase of fluctuation through the summer, dipping again to -0.16 %MoM in July 2025 before recovering to 0.29 %MoM in August.
The momentum shifted decisively in the latter part of the year. From September 2025, where the reading was 0.15 %MoM, the indicator began a consistent climb, reaching 0.27 %MoM in October 2025. The most striking development is the jump to the last recorded reading of 0.97 %MoM. This represents a substantial acceleration from the mid-year lows and brings core inflation back toward the levels seen in the spring of 2025. The current trend is unequivocally rising, signaling that the disinflationary forces that dominated the middle of 2025 have been overwhelmed by new inflationary drivers.
What This Means for EUR
The trajectory of core inflation is a primary driver for EUR positioning. In the foreign exchange market, a rising core inflation trend is generally viewed as bullish for the Euro. This is because persistent price increases force the European Central Bank to maintain higher interest rates to dampen demand, which in turn attracts capital inflows seeking higher yields on EUR-denominated assets. With the prior reading at 0.97 %MoM, the market is already pricing in a hawkish bias.
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY pairs most closely, as these are highly sensitive to shifts in the interest rate differential between the ECB and other major central banks. If the July release confirms the rising trend, it could lead to a breakout above key resistance levels. Conversely, any sign that the 0.97 %MoM reading was an outlier and that prices are returning to the 0.20% - 0.30% range seen in late 2025 would likely trigger a sell-off in the Euro as bets for rate cuts increase.
Monetary Policy Context
The European Central Bank operates under a primary mandate of price stability, typically defined as a 2% inflation target over the medium term. The ECB places significantly more weight on core inflation than headline inflation when determining its policy path, as core data provides a more reliable signal of future inflation expectations. The recent climb from 0.27 %MoM in October to 0.97 %MoM suggests that the ECB's battle against inflation is far from over.
If core inflation continues to trend upward, the ECB is likely to maintain a restrictive policy stance, potentially delaying any planned rate cuts or even considering further tightening if wage-price spirals emerge. A core MoM reading consistently near or above 1.0% would be a critical threshold, signaling to the Governing Council that inflation is not merely returning to target but is potentially becoming entrenched. This would leave the ECB with little choice but to prioritize inflation fighting over economic growth support, reinforcing a hawkish policy narrative.
What to Watch in the July Release
The July 01 release will be a pivotal event for EUR volatility. Markets will be looking for whether the 0.97 %MoM reading was a peak or a stepping stone to higher inflation. There are three primary scenarios to consider:
The Bullish Scenario (Beat): A reading above 1.0 %MoM would be a significant beat. This would signal that core inflation is accelerating rapidly, likely forcing the ECB to adopt an even more hawkish tone. Such a result would likely lead to a sharp rally in the EUR across all major pairs.
The Neutral Scenario (Match): A reading in the range of 0.90 %MoM to 1.0 %MoM would largely match the prior reading. This would suggest that inflation has plateaued at a high level. While generally supportive of the EUR, the lack of a surprise might lead to a period of consolidation as traders wait for further guidance from ECB officials.
The Bearish Scenario (Miss): A reading below 0.5 %MoM would represent a meaningful surprise to the downside. This would indicate that the recent spike to 0.97 %MoM was an anomaly and that the underlying trend is actually moderating. Such a miss would likely trigger a dovish shift in market expectations, leading to a decline in the EUR as traders price in a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle.
Track This Release
Access the full Core Inflation MoM (HICP ex Food & Energy) time series for EUR via the FXMacroData API:
curl "https://fxmacrodata.com/api/v1/announcements/eur/core_inflation_mom?api_key=YOUR_API_KEY"
See the Core Inflation MoM (HICP ex Food & Energy) endpoint documentation for full details, or explore the live dashboard.
