M1 Money Supply
June 25, 2026 at 10:00
654,021 CHF mn
FX traders, macro analysts, and portfolio managers are keenly anticipating the release of Switzerland's M1 Money Supply data for June 2026, scheduled for June 25, 2026, at 10:00 CET. This upcoming announcement from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds significant weight, particularly given the recent trend of a falling M1, which has implications for the Swiss franc (CHF) and the SNB's monetary policy trajectory.
The M1 Money Supply serves as a crucial gauge of immediate liquidity within the Swiss economy. Its recent trajectory, characterized by a notable decline, suggests tightening financial conditions. Market participants will be scrutinizing the June figures for signs of either continuation or reversal of this trend, as any significant deviation could trigger notable movements in CHF pairs and recalibrate expectations for the SNB's next policy moves.
Recent Readings
What M1 Money Supply Measures
M1 Money Supply is a key measure of the most liquid forms of money circulating within an economy. In Switzerland, M1 is calculated by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and primarily comprises currency in circulation (physical cash) and sight deposits held by the public with banks. Sight deposits, also known as demand deposits, are funds held in checking or current accounts that can be withdrawn or transferred without restriction. This aggregate represents the most accessible and readily usable money for transactions, making it a critical indicator of immediate purchasing power and economic activity.
Traders and analysts closely follow M1 because it offers insights into short-term liquidity, consumer spending potential, and inflationary pressures. A robust M1 growth typically suggests ample liquidity, potentially fostering increased consumption and investment, which can lead to inflationary pressures. Conversely, a sustained contraction in M1, as observed recently in Switzerland, indicates a tightening of monetary conditions, reduced liquidity, and potentially disinflationary forces. For FX traders, M1 can signal shifts in economic fundamentals that influence currency valuations, as changes in liquidity can impact interest rate expectations and capital flows.
Recent Trend Analysis
Switzerland's M1 Money Supply has been on a notable downward trajectory, indicating a significant tightening of liquidity within the economy. Examining the recent data points (from oldest to newest as provided, effectively showing the decline when viewed in reverse chronological order to align with the 'falling trend' context) reveals a consistent and accelerating reduction in the most liquid forms of money.
Starting from a peak in October 2025 at 742,267 CHF mn, the M1 supply has fallen steadily. By September 2025, it had declined to 734,349 CHF mn, a drop of 7,918 CHF mn. This downward momentum continued through August 2025 (731,766 CHF mn) and July 2025 (723,902 CHF mn). A more substantial contraction was observed between July and June 2025, where M1 fell by 14,176 CHF mn to 709,726 CHF mn. The most significant month-over-month decline in this series occurred between June and May 2025, plummeting by 35,361 CHF mn to 674,365 CHF mn.
The trend persisted, with M1 easing to 670,516 CHF mn in April 2025 and finally settling at the last reported reading of 654,021 CHF mn for March 2025. Cumulatively, from October 2025 to March 2025, the M1 Money Supply experienced a substantial reduction of 88,246 CHF mn, representing an approximately 11.89% decrease. This sustained and substantial fall underscores a significant withdrawal of immediate liquidity from the Swiss financial system, reflecting either reduced demand for cash and sight deposits or deliberate policy-driven tightening.
What This Means for CHF
A falling M1 Money Supply typically signals a contraction in readily available liquidity, which can have mixed implications for the Swiss franc (CHF). On one hand, reduced liquidity can be interpreted as a sign of economic slowdown or tighter monetary conditions, which might initially weigh on a currency. However, given Switzerland's status as a safe-haven currency, a tightening of domestic liquidity often implies a more hawkish stance from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) or a response to disinflationary pressures, which can be supportive of the CHF.
Traders will be monitoring for any signs of stabilization or reversal in the M1 trend. A continued sharp decline below the prior 654,021 CHF mn could reinforce expectations of a more cautious SNB, potentially leading to further CHF strength if it's perceived as a precursor to higher rates or a stronger commitment to price stability. Conversely, an unexpected rebound in M1 could suggest loosening conditions, potentially softening the CHF. Key pairs most sensitive to these shifts include USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, and GBP/CHF, where interest rate differentials and safe-haven flows play a significant role. Traders should watch for the CHF's reaction to the headline figure, particularly against major counterparts, looking for breaks of key technical support or resistance levels.
Monetary Policy Context
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) operates under a mandate focused on price stability, while taking due account of economic developments. A persistently falling M1 Money Supply, as observed in recent months, provides a critical input into the SNB's monetary policy deliberations. Such a trend typically suggests a reduction in aggregate demand and potential disinflationary pressures, which could influence the SNB's stance on interest rates and its balance sheet management.
In a scenario where inflation remains subdued or falls below target, a contracting M1 might give the SNB more leeway to maintain an accommodative stance or even consider further rate cuts if economic growth falters. Conversely, if the SNB perceives the liquidity contraction as too rapid or detrimental to financial stability, it might signal a readiness to intervene to stabilize the money supply. Recent communications from the SNB have likely focused on navigating global inflationary pressures while managing domestic economic conditions. The current M1 trajectory suggests that the SNB's prior actions, or broader market dynamics, are effectively withdrawing liquidity. Threshold levels for the SNB might include a sustained M1 reading significantly below 650,000 CHF mn, which could signal excessive tightening, or an unexpected surge back above 700,000 CHF mn, which might raise concerns about renewed inflationary risks. The SNB's interpretation of this data will be crucial in shaping future policy decisions.
What to Watch in the June Release
The upcoming June 2026 M1 Money Supply release will be closely watched for any deviation from the established falling trend. Given the last reading for March 2025 was 654,021 CHF mn, market participants will be assessing whether the decline has continued, stabilized, or potentially reversed.
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Beat Expectations (M1 rises or falls less than anticipated): An M1 reading significantly above the prior 654,021 CHF mn, perhaps moving back towards the 670,000 CHF mn range, would signal a potential stabilization or even a modest rebound in liquidity. This could be interpreted as a sign of improving economic sentiment or a slight easing of monetary conditions. Such an outcome might initially put some downward pressure on the CHF, as it could reduce the perceived urgency for the SNB to maintain a tight stance.
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Miss Expectations (M1 falls more than anticipated): A reading significantly below 654,021 CHF mn, for instance, falling towards 640,000 CHF mn or lower, would underscore the ongoing liquidity contraction. This would reinforce the narrative of tightening financial conditions and potentially stronger disinflationary pressures. This scenario could be bullish for the CHF, as it might prompt the SNB to acknowledge the need for continued vigilance on price stability, or even indicate a more aggressive stance if the decline is deemed excessive.
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Matches Expectations (M1 continues moderate fall): A reading broadly in line with a continued gradual decline from the prior 654,021 CHF mn would largely confirm the existing trend. This might lead to a more muted market reaction, with traders looking to other indicators or SNB commentary for fresh direction. A reading around 650,000-652,000 CHF mn might fall into this category, indicating a sustained but not necessarily accelerating decline.
A meaningful surprise would likely be a move of 10,000 CHF mn or more in either direction from a consensus (if available) or a significant acceleration/deceleration of the trend. Traders should be prepared for volatility in CHF pairs immediately following the 10:00 CET release.
Track This Release
Access the full M1 Money Supply time series for CHF via the FXMacroData API:
curl "https://fxmacrodata.com/api/v1/announcements/chf/m1?api_key=YOUR_API_KEY"
See the M1 Money Supply endpoint documentation for full details, or explore the live dashboard.
