Trade Views
Conviction-led FX theses with a clear market point, tradeable implication, and scenario framework for active markets.
The US dollar is more than just a currency — it is the world's reserve asset, petrodollar anchor, and safe-haven of last resort. This article maps the five structural and cyclical drivers behind DXY strength: rate differentials, real yield spreads, reserve demand, growth divergence, and speculative positioning.
Eurozone headline inflation has bounced between 2% and 2.5% for most of 2025–2026, services prices remain stubbornly above 3.5%, yet the ECB has cut rates seven times and signalled more easing ahead. This deep-dive maps the divergence between what the inflation data says and what the ECB is doing — and explains what it means for EUR/USD, the rate differential trade, and the key signals to watch in Q2 2026.
AUD and CAD move with commodity prices more than almost any other G10 pair. This article maps the terms-of-trade mechanism behind both currencies, contrasts the commodity baskets that drive each — iron ore and coal for AUD, crude oil and natural gas for CAD — and shows how to read the commodity cycle to anticipate FX direction before the central banks move.
Three forces are converging on the Canadian dollar simultaneously: the broadest Canada-US tariff escalation since NAFTA, a WTI crude price that has spent most of 2025-2026 below $75, and a BoC overnight rate sitting 175-200 bps below the Fed. This article maps all three headwinds, shows how they interact, and identifies the signals that will determine whether USD/CAD finds a ceiling or continues higher.
Norway earns roughly half its export revenues from oil and gas, making the NOK the G10’s most direct crude-price proxy. This analysis maps the EUR/NOK–Brent relationship, decodes Norges Bank’s reaction function, and provides a practical playbook for trading NOK across the commodity cycle.
Brazil's real sits at the intersection of three overlapping risk layers: a structural fiscal deficit that never fully closes, one of the highest real carry yields in the world, and a political cycle that reprices both. This analysis breaks down each layer and shows how they interact to create BRL's unique volatility profile.
The PBOC's managed float is more than an exchange-rate tool — it is a macro contagion lever. When Beijing adjusts the CNY fixing, the shockwave travels through AUD, BRL, KRW, and the broader EM FX complex within hours. This article maps the transmission channels, the historical devaluation episodes, and the data signals that give traders early warning.
How the gap between two countries' inflation rates signals the medium-term direction of their exchange rate. A data-driven walkthrough of EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD using CPI, core, trimmed-mean, and PCE series from the FXMacroData API.
Cross-country PMI divergence is one of the most reliable leading indicators in macro FX. When one economy's manufacturing and services activity pulls ahead of a peer, the exchange rate tends to follow — often weeks before the move registers in traditional rate-differential models. This article explains the mechanics, shows how to build the signal using the FXMacroData API, and explores which pairs respond most cleanly to PMI-led regimes.
Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory argues that structural global dollar demand — built up over decades of dollar-denominated debt — guarantees the US dollar will outperform when the credit cycle turns. This deep-dive explains the mechanics, maps it onto DXY cycle history, and identifies the macro signals every FX trader should watch.
Tariffs are not just trade policy — they are a macro shock that fractures the traditional dollar safe-haven narrative, sends capital flooding into the yen, and compresses the US–Japan rate differential. This analysis covers the 2025–2026 tariff escalation cycle, explains why JPY outperforms USD in trade-war risk-off, and provides a practical signal framework for trading USD/JPY through each regime.
Persistent current account imbalances are among the most reliable long-run anchors for FX direction. This article explains the transmission mechanism from surplus/deficit to currency flows, maps the current positions of major G10 currencies, and identifies the pairs where the structural balance is most likely to drive the next multi-year trend.
Write For Us
We welcome article submissions and ideas for the FXMacroData library. Send your pitch or draft to info@fxmacrodata.com.
Coverage, licensing, pricing and integration. Subscribers can also retrieve data.
Answers use AI. Questions are sent to Google. Your email and conversation are saved for support follow-up. Never include keys. Privacy