How the scorecard is built
Surprise. The average of two gaps: headline CPI month on month minus its nowcast, and core CPI month on month minus its nowcast. Both CPI figures are the first published values, as they stood at the moment of release, not later revisions.
Expectation. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Inflation Nowcasting figure published before each release.
Dollar move. The change in an equal-weighted basket of JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD, SEK, NOK against the US dollar, from the European Central Bank reference fixing at 14:10 Frankfurt time, shortly before the 08:30 New York release, to the Federal Reserve noon New York rate. Positive means the dollar rose. A release is scored only when both fixings bracket it and at least six of the currencies have prices; otherwise it is marked not scored.
What it shows. Most of the reaction happens within minutes of the release, so the value of knowing the surprise lies in having it immediately. These are historical relationships. They do not guarantee future moves and are not investment advice.