Quick answer
The United Kingdom pays the most at the long end. On 1 October 2026 the 30-year gilt yield was 6.04%, the highest reading in the Bank of England series FXMacroData stores. The United States followed at 5.63% (2 October), the euro area at 4.53%, Canada at 4.28% and Japan at 4.15%, a record for the 30-year JGB. Switzerland (0.61%) and China (2.10%) are the outliers: Swiss long yields are still below their May high and Chinese yields have fallen 17 basis points this year while every other market in the table except Switzerland (+18 basis points) has risen by 43 to 79 basis points.
The long-end league table
Ranking sovereigns by their 30-year yield is the cleanest way to see who is paying the most to borrow for a generation. The 30-year point carries the least information about the next central-bank meeting and the most about fiscal supply, long-run inflation credibility and the premium investors demand for holding duration. In October 2026 that premium is being repriced almost everywhere at once.
| Market | 2-year | 10-year | 30-year | 30-year, change in 2026 | 30-year, 52-week range | 30-year high is the highest since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 4.60% | 5.42% | 6.04% | +73 bp | 5.18–6.04% | Series high (data from 2016) |
| United States | 4.83% | 5.28% | 5.63% | +79 bp | 4.54–5.64% | July 2001 |
| Eurozone | 3.32% | 4.19% | 4.53% | +51 bp | 3.76–4.53% | September 2012 |
| Canada | 3.27% | 3.94% | 4.28% | +43 bp | 3.51–4.30% | November 2007 |
| Japan | 1.92% | 3.10% | 4.15% | +79 bp | 3.06–4.15% | Series high (data from 1999) |
| China | 1.27% | 1.68% | 2.10% | −17 bp | 2.07–2.39% | Not at a high: 2.39% in March 2026 |
| Switzerland | 0.32% | 0.57% | 0.61% | +18 bp | 0.23–0.77% | Not at a high: 0.77% in May 2026 |
Swiss readings in the first table are the latest for each maturity (the 10-year is dated 2 October, the 30-year 1 October), which is why its 10s30s slope reads +4 basis points there and −3 basis points on a same-date basis in the curve table below.
Two of the seven markets are printing the highest 30-year yield in the series FXMacroData holds. For Japan that series starts in 1999, when the Ministry of Finance began publishing a 30-year benchmark, so 4.15% is a genuine record for the maturity. For the United Kingdom the stored Bank of England spot-curve series begins in 2016, so 6.04% is the highest reading of the past decade rather than a claim about the 1990s. The United States 30-year touched 5.64% on 30 September, its highest since July 2001 in the Treasury's constant-maturity series, and the euro-area 30-year has not been this high since September 2012.
Where today's yields sit against two decades of history
A long-run chart changes the question from "are yields high?" to "high compared with what?". For the United States, 2026 has taken the 30-year back to the levels of the early 2000s. For Japan it has taken the 30-year past anything seen since the bond was first issued. For the euro area and Canada, yields are back to pre-2008 territory but remain below the sovereign-crisis peaks of 2011 and the early-2000s levels respectively.
The chart also shows why cross-country comparisons need a date beside every number. The euro-area curve peaked at 5.14% at the end of 2011 during the sovereign-debt crisis, when the yield reflected default risk in the periphery rather than inflation. Today's 4.53% is a different kind of high: it comes with an ECB deposit rate that was raised to 2.50% in September, a latest stored euro-area inflation reading of 3.8%, and no comparable solvency scare.
How 2026 has repriced the whole curve
The move has not been confined to the long end. The front end has repriced harder in most markets because inflation has stayed above target and central banks have resumed tightening: the Federal Reserve raised its target to 4.00% on 16 September after holding at 3.75% through the spring and summer, the European Central Bank lifted its deposit rate to 2.50% in September after a move to 2.25% in June, and the Bank of Japan went to 1.25%. The U.S. 2-year yield has risen 136 basis points this year to 4.83%, 83 basis points above the new policy rate, so the market is pricing further hikes rather than cuts. The euro-area 2-year is up 115 basis points. In every market except China the 10-year has moved more than the 30-year.
That pattern, with the 10-year leading the 30-year, means the long end has flattened against the belly even as absolute yields hit multi-decade highs. The spread between 10- and 30-year yields has narrowed from 58 to 35 basis points in the United States over the past year, from 90 to 62 in the United Kingdom, from 140 to 105 in Japan and from 63 to 34 in the euro area. A rising level with a narrowing 10s30s slope is the signature of a market repricing the medium-term path of policy and inflation, not only the term premium. The term premium story is real, but it is not the whole story.
Curve shape, policy rates and inflation
The relationship between the 2-year yield and the policy rate shows how much further tightening, or how little easing, each market is pricing. The gap is widest in Canada (+102 basis points) and the United Kingdom (+85), with the United States and the euro area close behind at 83 and 82 basis points. Japan's 2-year at 1.92% is 67 basis points above the Bank of Japan's 1.25% policy rate. In Switzerland the Swiss National Bank holds at 0.00% and the 2-year at 0.32% prices only a modest move.
| Market | Policy rate | 2-year minus policy | 10s30s slope now | 10s30s slope a year ago | Latest inflation reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 4.00% (16 Sep 2026) | +83 bp | +35 bp | +58 bp | 3.4% (August CPI) |
| United Kingdom | 3.75% (17 Sep 2026) | +85 bp | +62 bp | +90 bp | 3.1% (August CPI) |
| Eurozone | 2.50% deposit rate (10 Sep 2026) | +82 bp | +34 bp | +63 bp | 3.8% (latest HICP) |
| Japan | 1.25% (18 Sep 2026) | +67 bp | +105 bp | +140 bp | 1.9% (August CPI) |
| Canada | 2.25% (2 Sep 2026) | +102 bp | +34 bp | +48 bp | See Canada CPI |
| Switzerland | 0.00% (24 Sep 2026) | +32 bp | −3 bp | +18 bp | See Swiss CPI |
| China | 3.00% loan prime rate (20 Sep 2026) | −173 bp | +42 bp | +39 bp | See China CPI |
Policy rates are the latest decisions stored for the Fed, Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank and People's Bank of China. China's 2-year yield sits far below its loan prime rate because the government bond curve prices deflation risk and heavy domestic demand for safe assets, which is why China's yields have fallen this year while every other market's have risen.
Who is paying a real premium
Nominal yields can rise because inflation expectations rise or because real yields rise. The distinction matters for currencies and for gold, and the United States is the market where it can be measured most precisely. The 10-year Treasury inflation-protected yield was 2.92% on 2 October, up from 1.93% at the end of 2025, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate moved only from 2.25% to 2.36%. The 30-year real yield was 3.34%. Almost all of the 2026 rise in U.S. nominal yields is therefore a rise in real yields, a point developed in Gold vs. Real Yields.
The United Kingdom's 10-year index-linked gilt yielded 2.00% on 30 September and the euro area's inflation-linked benchmark 1.07% on 1 October. Both are positive and both have risen in 2026, but neither matches the U.S. real-yield level. That gap is one reason the dollar has held up against currencies whose nominal yields look competitive: on a real basis the United States still pays more. The breakeven inflation and inflation-linked bond pages carry the stored series.
What the ranking means for currencies
Currencies respond to relative yields, relative real yields and risk sentiment, not to the absolute level of a domestic long bond. The two record-setting markets illustrate the point. Japan's 30-year has risen 106 basis points over the past year, yet USD/JPY traded at 157.67 on 2 October because U.S. 30-year yields rose 94 basis points over the same period and U.S. real yields rose faster. The gilt market pays the highest long-end yield in the table, yet GBP/USD at 1.32 is lower than in May. When a yield rises because investors demand more compensation for fiscal supply and inflation uncertainty, the currency does not reliably benefit. The practical approach is laid out in Government Bond Yields and Forex and in the cross-asset guide to rising yields.
The last twelve months, market by market
The timing is informative. Long yields drifted higher through the first half of 2026 and then stepped up from July, when Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel on the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The stored Brent series shows $113.96 on 29 September, 65% higher than a year earlier. An energy shock lifts inflation uncertainty and, through it, the compensation investors demand for long duration. It also explains why the move has been synchronised: every importer's curve is responding to the same shock, while China, with weak domestic demand and heavy savings, is not.
How to track the comparison yourself
Every series in this article is available from the announcements endpoint. One request per currency returns the daily observations with the publisher, source series identifier and the value exactly as published. The example below pulls the latest 30-year gilt observation.
curl -H "X-API-Key: YOUR_API_KEY" \
"https://api.fxmacrodata.com/v1/announcements/gbp/gov_bond_30y?limit=1"The response carries the calendar date of the observation, the value, the previous value and the publisher metadata, so a cross-country table can be rebuilt without touching seven national websites.
{
"currency": "GBP",
"indicator": "gov_bond_30y",
"name": "30-Year Gilt Yield",
"source": "Bank of England",
"data": [
{
"date": "2026-10-01",
"val": 6.039,
"previous_value": 5.997,
"change_from_previous": 0.042
}
]
}For a cross-market view without code, the government bond yields hub lists every published maturity, and each country page, for example United States government bond yields, collects the full curve for one market.
What to watch next
- Whether the 10s30s slope keeps narrowing. A long end that stops flattening while levels rise would mean term premium is taking over from policy repricing, which is a less currency-friendly kind of yield rise.
- Long-bond auction demand in the United Kingdom and Japan. Both markets are printing series highs. Weak bid cover at 30-year auctions would confirm that supply, not only inflation, is driving the move.
- U.S. real yields versus breakevens. As long as the rise is in real yields the dollar is supported; a shift toward rising breakevens would change the FX reading.
- Energy prices. A sustained fall in Brent would remove the inflation-uncertainty premium that has lifted every importer's curve since July.
- China's divergence. Falling Chinese yields alongside rising yields elsewhere widen the rate gap against the yuan and keep USD/CNY under upward pressure.
Sources and definitions
- U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve rates and daily par real yield curve rates. The 30-year constant-maturity series has no observations between February 2002 and February 2006, when the Treasury did not issue the bond.
- Bank of England yield curves, nominal government spot curve at 30 years. The stored series begins in January 2016.
- Japan Ministry of Finance JGB interest rates. The 30-year series begins in September 1999.
- European Central Bank euro-area government bond yield curve, 30-year spot rate.
- Bank of Canada bond yields, long-term benchmark.
- SIX Swiss Exchange and the Swiss Confederation for Swiss government bond yields; ChinaBond (CCDC) for Chinese government bond yields.
- Policy rates, CPI and Brent crude are the latest stored official observations served by FXMacroData, dated as shown in the text.
Observation dates differ by publisher. Comparisons use the latest available observation for each market and state its date; no values are estimated or interpolated.
