Separate what people expect from what bond markets price. Compare surveys, inflation compensation and inflation-linked yields using the same horizon and observation date.
A shared percent sign does not make these measures interchangeable.
What households, businesses or forecasters expect inflation to be over a stated period. Check the respondents, price index, forecast horizon and whether the result is a mean or median.
A one-year household forecast cannot be ranked directly against a five-year professional forecast.
The spread between nominal and inflation-linked government bond yields at a comparable maturity. It reflects expected inflation, inflation risk premia and relative bond liquidity.
Explore published breakeven ratesInflation-linked bond yields express returns relative to the bond's reference price index. They differ from subtracting the latest annual CPI reading from a nominal bond yield.
Explore nominal and inflation-linked bond yieldsA ten-year nominal yield of 4.0% and a comparable real yield of 1.5% imply a 2.5 percentage-point breakeven spread. These are illustrative values, not current quotes. Both yields must use compatible conventions and observation dates.
A ten-year breakeven covers the next ten years. A five-year forward rate starting in five years concerns years six through ten. Neither should be compared as if it were a one-year survey forecast.
Not necessarily. Expected inflation may have risen, but changes in risk premia and bond liquidity can also move the spread. Compare the change with survey evidence and the underlying nominal and real yields.
It is a backward-looking approximation using recently measured inflation. An inflation-linked yield concerns future cash flows tied to a specified price index. Keep the horizon and definition explicit.
Methodology: Federal Reserve research on inflation risk and TIPS liquidity premia.
Open a country for its available price measures, reference periods, release history and sources.
| Currency | Country | Workspace | Components | API |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD | Australia | AUD inflation | Components | API docs |
| BRL | Brazil | BRL inflation | Components | API docs |
| CAD | Canada | CAD inflation | Components | API docs |
| CHF | Switzerland | CHF inflation | Components | API docs |
| CNY | China | CNY inflation | Components | API docs |
| DKK | Denmark | DKK inflation | Components | API docs |
| EUR | Eurozone | EUR inflation | Components | API docs |
| GBP | United Kingdom | GBP inflation | Components | API docs |
| HUF | Hungary | HUF inflation | Components | API docs |
| ILS | Israel | ILS inflation | Components | API docs |
| JPY | Japan | JPY inflation | Components | API docs |
| KRW | South Korea | KRW inflation | Components | API docs |
| NOK | Norway | NOK inflation | Components | API docs |
| NZD | New Zealand | NZD inflation | Components | API docs |
| SEK | Sweden | SEK inflation | Components | API docs |
| THB | Thailand | THB inflation | Components | API docs |
| USD | United States | USD inflation | Components | API docs |
Start with the country and price measure, then check whether you need a monthly change, an annual change, a core measure or a particular release.
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