Skip to content
Prediction markets First print Signed record

Settlement data for prediction markets

Event contracts on CPI, payrolls, GDP and central-bank decisions settle on one number from one official release. FXMacroData records that number as first published, flags any later revision, and times the release from the moment the publisher actually released it.

Discuss settlement data View plans
first print
value as first released

The figure a contract settles on, kept apart from later revisions.

revised
true / false

The latest stored value and whether it differs from the first print.

release timing
4 numbers

Scheduled, actual release, stored, and latency from the actual release.

record
sha256 + ed25519

A canonical hash, and a signature that verifies the record came from us unchanged.

The settlement record

What each record contains

01

First print

The value as the official publisher first released it, rounded to the precision the publisher prints. This is the value threshold contracts settle on.

02

Revision flag

The latest stored value and a flag that says whether the series was revised after the first print. A revision never rewrites the first print.

03

Release timing

Four numbers: the scheduled time, the actual release window proven by our polls, the time the figure was stored, and the latency between the actual release and storage.

04

Source citation

A link to the publisher's own release page or document, so anyone resolving or disputing a market can check the figure at its source.

05

Signed record

Each record carries a canonical hash and can be signed with Ed25519, so a resolver can confirm it came from FXMacroData and was not altered.

Release timing

Latency runs from the actual release, not the schedule

A publisher can release early or late. Our polls bracket the real release: the last read that still showed the previous figure, and the first read that showed the new one. Latency is the time from the earliest possible release moment to the moment the figure was stored, so it is an upper bound. When the release moment was not captured, the record says not measured instead of estimating.

1 · Scheduled release
2026-10-15 12:30 UTC
2 · Actual release
after 2026-10-15 12:29:57.583 UTC
by 2026-10-15 12:30:03.404 UTC
3 · Stored
2026-10-15 12:30:03.988 UTC
4 · Latency = 3 minus 2
6.405 s

Example: US initial jobless claims, reference period 2026-10-10.

Track record

Releases by contract template

Releases from 2026-04-19 to 2026-10-16: 111 releases across 18 contract templates, with latency measured from the actual release for 1 of them. The rest are shown as not measured.

Contract template Releases Latency measured Median latency P90 latency Revised after first print
US CPI, year over year
usd_cpi_yoy 		6 0 of 6 not measured not measured 0
US CPI, month over month
usd_cpi_mom 		6 0 of 6 not measured not measured 0
US core CPI, year over year
usd_core_cpi_yoy 		6 0 of 6 not measured not measured 0
US core CPI, month over month
usd_core_cpi_mom 		6 0 of 6 not measured not measured 0
US nonfarm payrolls, monthly change
usd_nonfarm_payrolls_change 		6 0 of 6 not measured not measured 5
US unemployment rate
usd_unemployment_rate 		6 0 of 6 not measured not measured 0
US real GDP growth, advance estimate (QoQ SAAR)
usd_gdp_advance_qoq_saar 		2 0 of 2 not measured not measured 1
US PCE price index, year over year
usd_pce_yoy 		6 0 of 6 not measured not measured 5
US core PCE, month over month
usd_core_pce_mom 		6 0 of 6 not measured not measured 1
US initial jobless claims
usd_initial_jobless_claims 		26 1 of 26 6.405 s 6.405 s 17
FOMC decision (federal funds target range, upper bound)
usd_fed_decision 		4 0 of 4 not measured not measured 0
ECB decision (deposit facility rate)
eur_ecb_decision 		4 0 of 4 not measured not measured 0
Bank of England decision (Bank Rate)
gbp_boe_decision 		3 0 of 3 not measured not measured 0
Bank of Canada decision (overnight rate target)
cad_boc_decision 		4 0 of 4 not measured not measured 0
Reserve Bank of Australia decision (cash rate target)
aud_rba_decision 		4 0 of 4 not measured not measured 0
Bank of Japan decision (policy rate)
jpy_boj_decision 		4 0 of 4 not measured not measured 0
UK CPI, year over year
gbp_cpi_yoy 		6 0 of 6 not measured not measured 0
Euro area HICP inflation, year over year
eur_hicp_flash_yoy 		6 0 of 6 not measured not measured 1
US CPI, year over year 6 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-30 3.7 3.7 No 2026-10-14 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-31 3.4 3.4 No 2026-09-11 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-31 3.4 3.4 No 2026-08-12 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-30 3.5 3.5 No 2026-07-14 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-31 4.2 4.2 No 2026-06-10 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-30 3.8 3.8 No 2026-05-12 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
US CPI, month over month 6 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-30 0.6 0.6 No 2026-10-14 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-31 0.4 0.4 No 2026-09-11 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-31 0.1 0.1 No 2026-08-12 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-30 -0.4 -0.4 No 2026-07-14 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-31 0.5 0.5 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-30 0.6 0.6 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
US core CPI, year over year 6 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-30 2.6 2.6 No 2026-10-14 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-31 2.4 2.4 No 2026-09-11 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-31 2.5 2.5 No 2026-08-12 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-30 2.6 2.6 No 2026-07-14 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-31 2.9 2.9 No 2026-06-10 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-30 2.8 2.8 No 2026-05-12 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
US core CPI, month over month 6 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-30 0.3 0.3 No 2026-10-14 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-31 0.3 0.3 No 2026-09-11 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-31 0.2 0.2 No 2026-08-12 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-30 0.0 0.0 No 2026-07-14 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-31 0.2 0.2 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-30 0.4 0.4 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
US nonfarm payrolls, monthly change 6 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-30 29 29 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-31 162 133 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-31 -23 -10 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-30 57 31 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-31 172 63 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-30 115 148 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
US unemployment rate 6 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-30 4.2 4.2 No 2026-10-02 12:30 UTC by 2026-10-02 12:30:03.127 UTC not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-31 4.1 4.1 No 2026-09-04 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-31 4.1 4.1 No 2026-08-07 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-30 4.2 4.2 No 2026-07-02 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-31 4.3 4.3 No 2026-06-05 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-30 4.3 4.3 No 2026-05-08 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
US real GDP growth, advance estimate (QoQ SAAR) 2 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-06-30 1.5 2.2 Revised 2026-09-30 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured -
2026-03-31 2.1 2.1 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured -
US PCE price index, year over year 6 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-08-31 3.4 3.4 No 2026-09-30 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-31 3.7 3.4 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-30 3.7 3.5 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured -
2026-05-31 4.1 3.8 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-30 3.8 3.6 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured -
2026-03-31 3.5 3.4 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured -
US core PCE, month over month 6 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-08-31 0.2 0.2 No 2026-09-30 12:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-31 0.2 0.1 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-30 0.1 0.1 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured -
2026-05-31 0.3 0.3 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured -
2026-04-30 0.3 0.3 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured -
2026-03-31 0.3 0.3 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured -
US initial jobless claims 26 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-10-10 199,000 199,000 No 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC after 2026-10-15 12:29:57.583 UTC
by 2026-10-15 12:30:03.404 UTC 		2026-10-15 12:30:03.988 UTC 6.405 s Publisher
2026-10-03 197,000 197,000 No 2026-10-08 12:30 UTC by 2026-10-08 12:30:01.137 UTC 2026-10-08 12:30:01.272 UTC not measured Publisher
2026-09-26 197,000 197,000 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-09-19 197,000 198,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-09-12 196,000 198,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-09-05 206,000 207,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-29 206,000 207,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-22 203,000 204,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-15 206,000 207,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-08 212,000 212,000 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-01 199,000 200,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-25 197,000 198,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-18 187,000 189,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-11 208,000 209,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-04 215,000 217,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-27 217,000 217,000 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-20 216,000 216,000 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-13 227,000 227,000 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-06 230,000 230,000 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-30 223,000 225,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-23 212,000 212,000 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-16 209,000 210,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-09 211,000 212,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-02 200,000 199,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-25 189,000 190,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-18 214,000 215,000 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
FOMC decision (federal funds target range, upper bound) 4 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-16 4.00 4.00 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-29 3.75 3.75 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-17 3.75 3.75 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-29 3.75 3.75 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
ECB decision (deposit facility rate) 4 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-10 2.50 2.50 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-23 2.25 2.25 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-11 2.25 2.25 No 2026-06-11 12:15 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-30 2.00 2.00 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
Bank of England decision (Bank Rate) 3 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-17 3.75 3.75 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-30 3.75 3.75 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-18 3.75 3.75 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
Bank of Canada decision (overnight rate target) 4 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-02 2.25 2.25 No 2026-09-02 13:45 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-15 2.25 2.25 No 2026-07-15 13:45 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-10 2.25 2.25 No 2026-06-10 13:45 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-29 2.25 2.25 No 2026-04-29 13:45 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
Reserve Bank of Australia decision (cash rate target) 4 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-29 4.60 4.60 No 2026-09-29 04:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-11 4.35 4.35 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-16 4.35 4.35 No 2026-06-16 04:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-05 4.35 4.35 No 2026-05-05 04:30 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
Bank of Japan decision (policy rate) 4 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-18 1.25 1.25 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-31 1.00 1.00 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-16 1.00 1.00 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-28 0.75 0.75 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
UK CPI, year over year 6 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-08-31 3.1 3.1 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-31 2.9 2.9 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-30 2.6 2.6 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-31 2.8 2.8 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-30 2.8 2.8 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-03-31 3.3 3.3 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
Euro area HICP inflation, year over year 6 releases
Period First print Latest Revised 1 Scheduled 2 Actual release 3 Stored 4 Latency Source
2026-09-01 3.8 3.8 No 2026-10-02 09:00 UTC not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-08-01 3.3 3.2 Revised not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-07-01 2.9 2.9 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-06-01 2.8 2.8 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-05-01 3.2 3.2 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher
2026-04-01 3.0 3.0 No not recorded not captured not recorded not measured Publisher

Contract templates

Series and precision for common event contracts

Each template names the stored series, the precision the publisher prints and the outcome rule. A market's own rules always govern: check that they name the same release, measure and precision before relying on a template.

Template Publisher Unit Decimals Outcome Example question
US CPI, year over year
usd/inflation 		U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics %YoY 1 Threshold Will CPI inflation (YoY, all items, NSA) for the reference month be above X%?
US CPI, month over month
usd/inflation_mom 		U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics %MoM 1 Threshold Will CPI rise by more than X% month over month for the reference month?
US core CPI, year over year
usd/core_inflation 		U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics %YoY 1 Threshold Will core CPI (ex food and energy) be above X% year over year?
US core CPI, month over month
usd/core_inflation_mom 		U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics %MoM 1 Threshold Will core CPI rise by more than X% month over month?
US nonfarm payrolls, monthly change
usd/non_farm_payrolls_change 		U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands 0 Threshold Will the economy add more than X thousand jobs in the reference month (first print)?
US unemployment rate
usd/unemployment 		U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics % 1 Threshold Will the unemployment rate be above X% for the reference month?
US real GDP growth, advance estimate (QoQ SAAR)
usd/gdp_growth_qoq_saar 		U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis %QoQ SAAR 1 Threshold Will the advance estimate of real GDP growth be above X% (annualised)?
US PCE price index, year over year
usd/pce 		U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis %YoY 1 Threshold Will PCE inflation be above X% year over year?
US core PCE, month over month
usd/core_pce_mom 		U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis %MoM 1 Threshold Will core PCE rise by more than X% month over month?
US initial jobless claims
usd/initial_jobless_claims 		U.S. Department of Labor Persons 0 Threshold Will initial jobless claims for the reference week be above X?
FOMC decision (federal funds target range, upper bound)
usd/policy_rate 		Federal Reserve % 2 Decision Will the Fed cut, hold or hike at this meeting, and by how much?
ECB decision (deposit facility rate)
eur/policy_rate 		European Central Bank % 2 Decision Will the ECB cut, hold or hike the deposit facility rate at this meeting?
Bank of England decision (Bank Rate)
gbp/policy_rate 		Bank of England % 2 Decision Will the Bank of England cut, hold or hike Bank Rate at this meeting?
Bank of Canada decision (overnight rate target)
cad/policy_rate 		Bank of Canada % 2 Decision Will the Bank of Canada cut, hold or hike at this meeting?
Reserve Bank of Australia decision (cash rate target)
aud/policy_rate 		Reserve Bank of Australia % 2 Decision Will the RBA cut, hold or hike the cash rate at this meeting?
Bank of Japan decision (policy rate)
jpy/policy_rate 		Bank of Japan % 2 Decision Will the Bank of Japan change its policy rate at this meeting?
UK CPI, year over year
gbp/inflation 		Office for National Statistics %YoY 1 Threshold Will UK CPI inflation be above X% year over year?
Euro area HICP inflation, year over year
eur/inflation 		Eurostat %YoY 1 Threshold Will euro area inflation be above X% year over year?

Guardrails

Independent data provider

FXMacroData is not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket and is not the official resolution source for their markets. Each market's rules name its source and govern.

Official sources only

Every value comes from the official publisher's own release. When a value or a timing was not captured, the record says so.

Not investment advice

Records describe what was published and when. They are not a view on any market outcome.

Related reading

Use FXMacroData with Kalshi: central-bank event contracts
Use FXMacroData with Polymarket: macro event odds and official releases
Using FXMacroData with prediction markets: Kalshi and Polymarket
Macro oracle infrastructure for tokenized assets

Settlement feeds

Settle on the number the publisher released

Market operators, resolvers and builders can review the record format, the contract templates and the track record for the series they list before wiring a settlement workflow.

Discuss settlement data Browse API docs
Share page X LinkedIn Email