Start with the FXMacroData event record
Use Kalshi prices as an event-odds layer, then use FXMacroData as the macro data layer. The clean workflow is not "find a Kalshi title and trust it." It is: identify the official event in FXMacroData, match the Kalshi contract to that event, monitor the contract price before the announcement, and resolve the outcome against the official release.
Kalshi is useful here because it lists event contracts with tradable outcomes. FXMacroData is useful because central-bank events need normalized dates, prior values, actual values, and source links before the contract price can be used in a macro research process.
FXMacroData calendar and policy-rate history -> Kalshi event contract -> probability snapshot -> official central-bank release -> FXMacroData actual value and post-event review.
Step 1: Match the contract to an official release
Start from the FXMacroData release calendar, not from the market title. For a central-bank decision, capture these fields before looking at the contract price:
- Currency and institution, such as BRL and Banco Central do Brasil.
- Indicator, such as policy rate or Selic target rate.
- Scheduled announcement date and time.
- Prior value and unit, such as percent per annum.
- Official source URL and release-confirmation status.
That gives the contract a macro identity. A Kalshi market can use compact wording, but your internal record should use the official institution and indicator naming that appears in FXMacroData.
Step 2: Map Kalshi outcomes to macro outcomes
For a rate decision, convert contract outcomes into policy-rate changes. A simple mapping table is enough:
| Kalshi outcome | FXMacroData field to check | Research interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Cut 25 basis points | Actual policy rate minus prior policy rate | Small easing surprise or expected cut, depending on pre-event pricing. |
| Maintain current rate | Actual policy rate equals prior policy rate | Hold outcome; compare with central-bank statement tone. |
| Cut 50 basis points or more | Actual policy-rate change bucket | Larger easing outcome; check FX reaction and statement language. |
Example: Brazil March 2026
The March 2026 Brazil rate-decision query maps to a Copom decision by Banco Central do Brasil. The official statement for the 277th Copom meeting reported that Copom reduced the Selic rate to 14.75% p.a. From a prior 15.00% target, the normalized result is a 25 basis point cut.
That is the point where FXMacroData and Kalshi serve different roles. Kalshi can show how the market priced the event before the release. FXMacroData gives you the official event metadata and the actual value you use to score the market.
Step 3: Save the pre-event snapshot
Before the decision, store the contract URL, market timestamp, displayed probability, volume/liquidity context, and your FXMacroData event ID or internal slug. Do not store the displayed price as the event result. Store it as a pre-event sentiment observation.
After the release, add the actual value, the official source link, and a short post-event label such as "priced correctly," "hawkish surprise," or "dovish surprise." This makes the Kalshi price usable in later research without mixing it into the official macro series.
Step 4: Use it in a repeatable macro workflow
- Build a watchlist from FXMacroData upcoming central-bank releases.
- Attach any matching Kalshi contract URL to the event record.
- Snapshot odds at fixed intervals before the event.
- Resolve the event with FXMacroData actual values and central-bank source links.
- Compare the contract's pre-event odds with the actual decision and FX move.
What Kalshi contributes, in one paragraph
Kalshi is the tradable event-contract venue in this workflow. Its own materials describe it as CFTC-regulated and operating as a Designated Contract Market. That status matters for trading access and market structure, but it does not remove the need for official-source macro verification. Use Kalshi for priced event probabilities; use FXMacroData for the event calendar, history, actuals, and source-linked audit trail.
