Use FXMacroData to make Metaculus questions precise
Metaculus is useful for macro work when the question needs clear resolution criteria, probability history, and forecast reasoning. FXMacroData supplies the official macro event data that makes those questions precise: source agency, indicator definition, release schedule, historical values, and actual results.
Metaculus is a forecasting platform with public questions and tournaments. In this workflow, Metaculus is the forecast layer. FXMacroData is the official macro data layer used to write, monitor, and score the question.
FXMacroData history and calendar -> Metaculus question specification -> forecast probability history -> official release -> score against actual macro data.
Step 1: Choose the forecast horizon
Metaculus is usually strongest when the question is broader than one same-day event contract. Instead of only asking whether a central bank will move at the next meeting, a Metaculus-style macro question can ask whether a policy rate will be below a threshold by a future date, whether inflation will fall into a range, or whether a sequence of decisions will occur by year-end.
Use FXMacroData to select the base series and historical context before writing the question. For a Brazil rates question, that means the Brazil policy-rate series, the prior Selic target, the next confirmed Copom dates, and the central-bank source page.
Step 2: Write resolution criteria from official data
A useful Metaculus macro question has to say exactly what counts. Use this checklist:
- Source agency: Banco Central do Brasil, Federal Reserve, ECB, statistics agency, or another official source.
- Series: policy rate, CPI inflation, unemployment, payrolls, GDP, or another named indicator.
- Date rule: meeting date, release date, calendar quarter, or year-end cutoff.
- Value rule: initial release, revised value, target rate, upper bound, lower bound, or exact threshold.
- Fallback rule: what happens if the release is delayed, renamed, or revised.
FXMacroData provides the source-linked data needed to fill those fields without guessing. That is the difference between a forecast question and a vague macro discussion.
Step 3: Add base rates and recent data
Before the question opens, use FXMacroData to add context:
| FXMacroData input | How it helps the Metaculus question |
|---|---|
| Historical policy-rate series | Gives forecasters base rates and recent central-bank behavior. |
| Release calendar | Shows which future events can change the probability path. |
| Central-bank statements | Anchors the qualitative policy signal to official language. |
| Actual values after release | Supports clean scoring and post-mortem analysis. |
Step 4: Track forecasts against actuals
After the Metaculus question is live, snapshot the forecast probability at fixed intervals and after major data releases. When the official result arrives, use FXMacroData actual values and source links to score the forecast. This turns Metaculus from a standalone discussion page into a measurable forecasting input.
For the Central Bank of Brazil example, a clean scorecard would include the Metaculus question URL, the FXMacroData indicator, the forecast probability path, the official Copom statement URL, the prior Selic target, and the actual Selic target after the decision.
What Metaculus contributes, in one paragraph
Metaculus contributes structured forecast questions, probability histories, and forecaster reasoning. FXMacroData contributes the official macro data that makes those questions specific and scoreable. Use Metaculus to collect and compare forecasts. Use FXMacroData to define the event, provide the base data, and verify the result.
