Use FXMacroData to write better Manifold markets
Manifold is most useful for macro work when you treat it as a community forecasting layer. FXMacroData supplies the exact event definition, date, prior value, official source, and actual result. Manifold supplies the crowd forecast, comments, and probability changes around a user-created question.
Manifold uses play-money Mana and user-created markets. That means the best FXMacroData workflow is not order execution. It is question design, forecast monitoring, and clean resolution.
FXMacroData event pack -> Manifold question and resolution text -> community probability history -> official release -> resolved forecast and scorecard.
Step 1: Build the event pack
Before creating or evaluating a Manifold market, pull the FXMacroData fields that make the question resolvable:
- Currency and country, such as BRL and Brazil.
- Institution and committee, such as Banco Central do Brasil and Copom.
- Indicator, such as Selic target rate or policy rate.
- Scheduled release date and announcement time.
- Prior value and unit.
- Official source link and release-confirmation status.
This event pack is what prevents vague questions. A Manifold market should not ask "Will Brazil cut rates?" without saying which meeting, which rate, which source, and which result counts.
Step 2: Turn the event pack into resolution criteria
A Manifold question should be written so that anyone can resolve it from the official release. For a Brazil central-bank example, the resolution text can look like this:
Question:
Will Copom cut the Selic target rate at the March 2026 meeting?
Resolution:
This resolves YES if Banco Central do Brasil reports a Selic target
below the prior 15.00% p.a. target in the official Copom statement
for the March 2026 policy meeting. It resolves NO if the target is
unchanged or higher. The source of record is the BCB Copom statement.
FXMacroData gives you the prior value, event date, and source link needed to write that text accurately. After the release, FXMacroData gives you the actual value used to resolve it.
Step 3: Monitor the community forecast
Manifold's value is the community signal. Track the probability at fixed points before the event, especially after central-bank speeches, inflation releases, fiscal news, or global risk moves. Store those observations next to the FXMacroData event record.
| Field | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Manifold probability | Shows community expectation at a point in time. |
| FXMacroData prior value | Defines whether the release is a cut, hold, or hike. |
| Official release link | Prevents disputes about which source resolves the market. |
| Actual value | Lets you score the forecast after the event. |
Step 4: Resolve and backtest
After the event, update the Manifold market with the official result and keep a local scorecard. Over time, you can compare Manifold probability histories against actual FXMacroData outcomes to see which communities, question types, or event categories produce useful forecasting signals.
What Manifold contributes, in one paragraph
Manifold contributes community forecasts and discussion around user-created questions. FXMacroData contributes the official macro event definition and result. Use Manifold when you want a crowd view or want to publish a clear forecast question. Use FXMacroData to make the question precise and to resolve it cleanly.
