NAIRU (Natural Rate of Unemployment) by Country
Latest released NAIRU (Natural Rate of Unemployment) value for every supported currency, with the previous reading, the change between releases, reference date, frequency, unit, and source.
/api/v1/announcements/{currency}/nairu. Non-USD endpoints require an API key query parameter.| Country / Currency | Latest | Previous | Change | Reference | Frequency | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States
USD · US Dollar
|
4.4
31 Mar 2026
|
4.4
31 Dec 2025
|
● 0 | 31 Mar 2026 | Quarterly | % | FRED (BEA/BLS/Fed) |
What is NAIRU (Natural Rate of Unemployment)?
NAIRU is the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment — the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation in the long run. It is an estimate (not directly observed) and it shifts over time with structural labour-market changes.
Why it matters for FX
NAIRU is the benchmark central banks implicitly compare the actual unemployment rate to when judging whether the labour market is generating inflationary or disinflationary pressure. Shifts in NAIRU estimates affect the perceived policy stance even with no policy-rate change.
How to read this page
Use NAIRU as a reference point against the actual unemployment rate. A negative gap (unemployment below NAIRU) signals an overheating labour market and inflation pressure; a positive gap signals slack.
What to watch for
- Unemployment-rate gap to NAIRU
- CBO and OECD NAIRU estimate revisions
- Wage-growth confirmation of the gap
- Beveridge-curve shifts
- Long-run vs short-run NAIRU concept