Inflation Expectations by Country
Latest released Inflation Expectations value for every supported currency, with the previous reading, the change between releases, reference date, frequency, unit, and source.
/api/v1/announcements/{currency}/inflation_expectations. Non-USD endpoints require an API key query parameter.What is Inflation Expectations?
Inflation expectations measure what households, firms, professional forecasters, and the bond market believe inflation will be over different horizons (typically 1, 5, and 5-10 years ahead). Sources include the Michigan survey, the NY Fed survey, ECB SPF, and market-implied breakeven yields.
Why it matters for FX
Anchored inflation expectations are central banks' most prized asset. Once expectations un-anchor — meaning households and firms start expecting persistently higher inflation — pricing and wage-bargaining behaviour follows and inflation becomes self-perpetuating. The Fed and ECB watch market and survey measures closely; a meaningful shift in 5y5y expectations typically forces a policy reaction that moves the currency.
How to read this page
Watch 5y5y forward (the truly long-run gauge) for anchoring; watch 1-year for short-term inflation surprises feeding through to behaviour. Cross-reference market-implied breakevens with survey-based measures — divergence is a useful tell.
What to watch for
- 5y5y forward anchored at or near 2 percent
- Survey vs market measures diverging
- Michigan 1-year expectations spiking with energy prices
- ECB SPF revision rounds
- Asymmetry: faster un-anchoring than re-anchoring